SoFi Technologies, Inc. provides financial services across the US, Latin America, Canada, and Hong Kong through its Lending, Technology Platform, and Financial Services segments. The company trades on Nasdaq under the ticker “SOFI.”
Since its low in December 2022, SoFi’s price has increased five times. The high reached $28.26 in early 2021, before dropping to a low of $4.24 in December 2022. The recent price rise fits within an expected upward pattern.
Elliott Wave analysis predicts a rally starting from a low in April 2025. The current price movement suggests a correction within wave ((iv)), and we anticipate a rise afterward.
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The current market correction, viewed as wave ((iv)), presents opportunities for derivative traders. Despite SoFi achieving its second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, the stock’s recent decline indicates that the weakness may be more technical than a fundamental issue.
In the near term, as the correction unfolds, we can consider selling cash-secured puts with strike prices around or below recent support levels, possibly near $6.00. The stock’s high implied volatility, recently above 60%, offers attractive premiums for this strategy, allowing traders to earn while waiting for a better entry point.
Looking ahead to the expected rise, buying long-dated call options is a sensible response. To benefit fully from the rally projected from the April 2025 low, we should target expirations in late 2025 or January 2026. This strategy helps manage the risk associated with accurately timing the market bottom.
We must also account for the broader market situation, as CEO Noto mentioned the challenges posed by the current interest rate environment. If the Federal Reserve maintains high rates for an extended period, it could hinder the financial services sector and postpone the next upward wave. This economic pressure implies we might experience a corrective phase before a significant advance.
The company’s high short interest, around 18% of the free float, adds another consideration. This situation could lead to a short squeeze triggered by any positive news, resulting in a swift upward price movement. A bull call spread might effectively position us for such a scenario while keeping risk defined.
Reflecting on the five distinct upward movements since the low in 2022, each has been followed by a notable pullback. This historical pattern suggests that once the next rally starts, it may be wise to sell covered calls against core stock holdings. This strategy allows for income generation during the price increase, aligning with the stock’s volatile behavior.
Price Movements of SoFi since December 2022
Nvidia has reached new highs since its low in April 2025, showing a strong upward trend. On April 7, 2025, the company finished a pullback at 86.62. After that low, the momentum shifted toward a rally with a series of higher highs. During this phase, Nvidia reached a high of 115.44 in wave (1) and 95.04 in wave (2).
Next, wave 1 of (3) came in at 143.84, followed by wave 2 at 132.93 and wave 3 at 174.53. Wave (3) exceeded the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of wave (1), indicating potential for further gains. Currently, Nvidia is retracing towards the 170.13 to 168.11 range. It’s finishing wave 4 and is likely to see a rally in wave 5 or at least bounce back in three swings.
Wave 4 Support
In wave 4, parts ((a)) and ((b)) peaked at 171.26 and 173.38, respectively. Soon, potential support could emerge to encourage a rise. Wave 5 of (3) might reach 175.9 or higher, keeping the bullish trend intact. After that, a pullback against the April low is expected, which could happen in 3, 7, or 11 swings, depending on whether the bullish momentum continues.
We view the current drop towards the 170.13 to 168.11 area as a good short-term buying opportunity for bullish positions. Derivative traders might consider implementing call option strategies as the stock approaches this support zone. This aligns with the expected end of the brief wave 4 correction.
Nvidia’s recent 10-for-1 stock split on June 10, 2024, has historically attracted more retail interest and liquidity. This fundamental support adds to the technical setup for another upward move. We believe strong demand for the next-generation Blackwell platform will keep positive sentiment high in the coming weeks.
Implied volatility has slightly decreased from its recent highs, making call options for the next leg up more reasonably priced. Data from Cboe Global Markets shows a steady, high volume of call options, indicating widespread bullish speculation that fits with our wave 5 target. This suggests traders are positioning for a rise to the 175.9 level or beyond.
Historical Patterns Indicate Consolidation
Looking back at historical trends, the stock has experienced several quick pullbacks of 10-20% over the past 18 months, followed by notable new highs. This pattern suggests the current minor dip serves as a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal. We expect this pause to provide the momentum for the next rally.
Once wave 5 completes, traders should adjust their strategies to prepare for a more substantial pullback. This may include taking profits on long positions or starting bearish positions, like buying puts, to protect against the anticipated multi-swing correction. It’s essential to watch for signs of exhaustion as prices near new highs.
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The US dollar has dropped against major currencies for two days in a row. As the August 1 deadline for US trade deals approaches, worries about possible tariffs are impacting the dollar, which has fallen around 10% this year. Concerns about the fiscal deficit and political pressures on the Federal Reserve are also shaking confidence in the dollar. US yields are declining, with the Richmond Fed manufacturing index recently falling from -8 to -20.
Technically, USDJPY has fallen to the 100-bar moving average near 146.389, testing important swing levels. EURUSD has broken through key resistance levels and is moving higher, while GBPUSD has surpassed the 38.2% July retracement level, indicating that buyers are in control. AUDUSD initially dipped but later rebounded to trade at 0.6551, showing a bullish trend.
US Market Summary
US yields closed lower, with the 2-year yield at 3.833% and the 10-year yield at 4.346%. The S&P reached a new record high, while the NASDAQ ended its six-day increase. The Dow rose by 179.37 points, and the S&P gained 4.02 points. Crude oil fell by $0.56 to $65.39, while gold prices rose by $33.98. Bitcoin jumped by $2185 to $119,622.
The fundamental outlook for the dollar is weakening, and technical breakdowns across major currency pairs support this view. This situation creates a clear opportunity to prepare for more declines in the coming weeks. Recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that hedge funds and large speculators have increased their net short positions on the U.S. dollar to the highest level in over two years, indicating alignment with institutional trends.
We should think about buying call options on the Euro and Australian dollar, using the breakout levels mentioned as references for strike prices. This strategy limits risk while taking advantage of the upward trends in EURUSD and AUDUSD. With the trade deadline approaching, there could be more volatility, making options a smart choice compared to more leveraged futures positions.
Bearish Dollar Outlook
The decline in U.S. yields across the curve supports our negative outlook, as it reduces the dollar’s appeal in carry trades. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an over 85% chance of a rate cut by the September meeting, indicating that the market anticipates a more dovish central bank. Political pressures on Chair Powell further strengthen the belief that rates are likely to decrease.
The strong rise in gold is a clear confirmation of the anti-dollar trend, and we expect this momentum to continue. Even as the S&P hits new highs, the NASDAQ’s recent stumble suggests we should be cautious about the broader risk-on narrative. This might favor currency pairs like AUDUSD, which benefit from both dollar weakness and a solid commodity backdrop.
Historically, times of coordinated easing by the Federal Reserve often lead to extended periods of dollar weakness, similar to the declines seen after the rate cuts of 2007-2008 and 2019. We should be ready to maintain bearish dollar positions for more than just a few weeks and consider adding to them during any short-term pullbacks. The weak Richmond Fed index signals that the economic factors for a weaker currency are also developing.
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Japan’s Akazawa and US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently spoke for about 30 minutes about trade tariffs. According to Japanese media outlet NHK, a trade agreement between Japan and the United States is not close.
The meeting discussed the current state of trade between the two countries, but no solutions were found. This lack of a trade deal highlights ongoing disagreements about trade policies.
Currency Market Instability
Since there was no progress made during the talks, we expect the currency markets to become more volatile. The Japanese Yen is under a lot of pressure right now. This stalemate could lead to sudden and sharp changes in the USD/JPY exchange rate.
Given this uncertainty, traders might want to look at options strategies that benefit from volatility instead of direction. With the USD/JPY exchange rate near a 34-year high around the 159 level, the chances of intervention or sudden changes in sentiment are higher. We suggest considering long straddles or strangles on this currency pair to prepare for a significant move in either direction.
This situation will likely affect Japanese stocks, especially those that export goods. Major companies in the Nikkei 225 depend heavily on the U.S. market, which accounted for over $180 billion in Japanese exports in 2023. We are planning to buy put options on the Nikkei to protect against potential tariff threats or a stronger yen that could hurt exporter profits.
Prolonged Economic Uncertainty
Historically, long trade disputes, like the US-China conflict from 2018 to 2020, have caused extended periods of high market volatility. During that time, the VIX index often rose above 20, indicating significant market fear. We expect a similar situation might occur now, making long positions on volatility indices a wise decision.
The political factors add another layer of long-term risk, as these discussions might hint at a more aggressive American trade policy. This suggests that uncertainty will last beyond the next few weeks and possibly through the U.S. election cycle. To capture this extended period of instability, we are looking into longer-term derivative contracts that expire in late 2024 or early 2025.
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The YM_F Dow futures have been on an upward trend since hitting a low on April 7, 2025. This trend hints at more price increases, and it’s recommended to buy during dips in certain blue box areas.
By July 15, 2025, the Dow futures rose to a high of $45,177 after completing a cycle from the previous low on June 19, 2025. After that, a correction occurred, ending in the blue box area of $44,291–$43,819, where buying interest could lead to more upward movement.
Market Update
As of July 22, 2025, the index has been rising following the correction in the blue box area. To maintain upward momentum, it’s crucial to break above $45,177; otherwise, a more significant decline may happen.
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We view the upward trend since April as the main direction, suggesting that the Dow futures are likely to rise further. The recent dip into the blue box was a normal correction within a larger uptrend. Traders should consider this a healthy pause instead of a cause for concern.
Economic Indicators and Market Performance
This technical outlook is supported by recent economic data. The June 2025 jobs report indicated a moderate payroll increase of 170,000, while the Consumer Price Index eased to 3.2% year-over-year. This indicates a growing economy without overheating, which reduces the Federal Reserve’s need to raise interest rates.
Historically, markets thrive in conditions of lowering inflation coupled with steady economic growth. Corporate earnings have also been strong, with over 75% of companies in the index exceeding profit expectations last quarter. This financial stability supports the bullish technical trend we’re seeing.
As a result, we suggest that derivative traders take advantage of any small pullbacks in the upcoming weeks to prepare for further upward movement. Recent buying interest in the $44,291–$43,819 area shows that buyers are active during dips. It’s essential to manage risk while anticipating the continuation of this trend.
The immediate goal should be for the index to clearly break and hold above the previous peak of $45,177. A sustained movement past this level would indicate the end of the corrective phase and the start of the next upward leg. Until that occurs, a larger sideways correction is still a possibility.
Trading futures carries significant risks due to leverage and may not suit everyone. The analysis presented is not a guarantee of future performance, and we are not liable for any financial losses. This proprietary information should not be shared or reproduced.
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The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the U.S. dropped to -20 in July, while analysts had expected it to be -3. This indicates a decline in the manufacturing sector around Richmond.
The EUR/USD pair has climbed to about 1.1760, but recent factors have put pressure on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has passed 1.3500, reaching its highest level in several days due to these changes.
Gold Prices Surge
Gold prices have jumped above $3,400, hitting five-week highs. This rise is due to a weakening US Dollar, decreasing US yields, and ongoing trade tensions.
Bitcoin has stayed above $118,000 after SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, transferred $150 million. Ethereum’s gains have eased a bit, moving towards $3,600, although spot ETF inflows remain stable.
In politics, the early part of Trump’s second term has seen new policy changes, but the markets remain strong. There is a clear focus on “America First” policies, impacting trade and national strategies.
The significant drop in the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing data indicates a slowdown in the US economy. This isn’t just a small miss; it’s a serious decline that suggests traders should brace for more weaknesses in future economic reports. Historically, sharp decreases in regional manufacturing surveys have signaled broader economic troubles.
Weakness In The US Dollar
The clear weakness in the US Dollar stems from this economic sentiment, and we expect this trend to last. We are looking at put options on the dollar index or call options on major currency pairs to benefit from further declines. Recent CFTC data shows a rise in speculative short positions against the dollar, supporting this bearish outlook.
With gold exceeding previous highs, it has reaffirmed its status as a safe-haven asset amid falling yields and political uncertainty. We see this as a chance to buy long-dated call options, which would allow us to profit from further price increases while managing our risk. This approach is supported by historical trends where gold performs well during US dollar weakness and geopolitical issues.
Bitcoin’s rise, driven by Musk’s company activities, offers a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. We suggest using call spreads to capture potential gains while managing the risks associated with such volatile moves. For Ethereum, its steadier growth, backed by institutional interest, makes a covered call strategy attractive. This allows us to generate income while holding the asset.
The policy changes under the current administration add friction to the markets, likely keeping volatility high across various assets. This situation favors strategies that benefit from price swings, so we are considering buying straddles or strangles on major indexes. This will help us stay neutral while taking advantage of increased uncertainty from the “America First” agenda.
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A private survey from the American Petroleum Institute (API) found that crude oil inventory decreased less than expected. The survey estimates changes in inventories as follows: crude oil down 1.6 million barrels, distillates down 1.1 million barrels, and gasoline down 0.9 million barrels.
This information comes before the official figures from the U.S. government. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its official report on Wednesday morning, which is known for being more accurate and detailed.
API and EIA Data
The API gathers data from oil storage facilities and companies, while the EIA relies on data from the Department of Energy and other official sources. The government report not only shows crude oil storage levels but also details about refinery inputs and outputs, plus storage levels for various grades of crude oil. These differences make the EIA report more reliable for understanding the overall oil market.
The private survey’s smaller-than-expected crude draw raises concerns. It suggests that demand might be slowing down more than the market had anticipated. This data point should prompt traders to be cautious about holding too many bullish positions before the official report.
The EIA’s later data confirmed this trend, but it was even stronger. The EIA reported a surprising inventory increase of 3.7 million barrels, going against expectations for a decrease, which caused West Texas Intermediate crude prices to drop below $78. This trend indicates weakening demand fundamentals in the United States.
Market Implications and Future Predictions
Looking ahead, we are keeping an eye on broader economic challenges, especially when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. Recently strong U.S. job data has delayed expectations for rate cuts, boosting the dollar and making oil pricier for global buyers. This situation will likely limit significant price increases for crude oil in the near future.
On the supply side, OPEC+ has decided to continue its significant production cuts but plans to gradually ease them starting in October. This might support prices now but could create a bearish outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond. We are considering this future increase in supply in our longer-term derivative positions.
In the past, large differences between private surveys and official reports have led to market volatility. Derivative traders might want to use strategies that profit from price fluctuations, like buying straddles, due to high uncertainty around weekly inventory numbers. We expect implied volatility to increase around the Wednesday morning data releases.
Global demand also remains uncertain, especially after recent purchasing managers’ index data from China showed an unexpected decline in manufacturing activity for May. This raises doubts about the strength of recovery in the world’s largest oil importer. As a result, we are protecting against the possibility that weak demand from Asia will put additional pressure on the market.
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Northrop Grumman, a U.S. aerospace and defense technology company, recently stated in an SEC filing that the current tariffs from the Trump administration will not significantly impact its business.
The company expects a legislative measure dubbed the “one big beautiful bill” to provide a tax benefit of $200 million to $250 million in 2025.
With about 97,000 employees, Northrop Grumman operates in advanced systems related to space, aeronautics, defense, mission systems, and cybersecurity. Despite facing challenges, the company has a positive outlook and does not foresee any immediate negative effects from tariffs.
This confidence shows that Northrop Grumman is well-insulated from current trade policies, demonstrating its operational strength. This stability provides a reliable base for stock options, reducing the risk of sudden declines due to tariff-related news.
Geopolitical tensions heavily influence the defense sector, and recent events have boosted demand. Historical trends reveal that during conflicts, like the early days of the war in Ukraine, defense stocks often rise significantly. With over 20 NATO members expected to meet the 2% of GDP defense spending target in 2024, we anticipate ongoing demand for Northrop Grumman’s advanced systems.
The promise of a substantial tax benefit for 2025 offers strong support for the company’s fundamentals. This upcoming cash infusion will enhance its balance sheet and potentially increase the stock’s value. For traders, this creates confidence for holding longer-term derivative positions.
Considering these factors, we recommend a bullish approach. Strategies could involve selling cash-secured puts at strike prices below the current market value to earn premiums while setting a favorable entry point.
For those wanting more aggressive exposure, buying call options with expiration dates three to six months out is a promising strategy. This timeframe allows for geopolitical developments while keeping option costs manageable. We would watch implied volatility to find the best times to enter these positions.
Asset allocation in a retirement account, like an IRA, is vital for your financial future. If you don’t allocate assets wisely, it can cost you in the long run. Many people miss out on strategic investment planning and let their cash sit idle, which slows down their savings growth.
Investing in IRAs isn’t just about putting money in; it’s more about how you allocate those investments. Waiting too long to invest or keeping cash uninvested can lower your potential returns. For example, a study by Vanguard found that keeping money in cash could lead to a loss of up to $16,000 over 30 years with just a 4% annual return.
Portfolio Diversification
Asset allocation involves spreading your investments across different asset classes, like stocks, bonds, cash, and sometimes real estate. Each asset type reacts differently to economic changes, which can help reduce risk and improve growth. Your age, risk tolerance, and financial goals should influence how you allocate your assets. Younger investors might focus more on stocks, while retirees might lean towards bonds.
Many savers make the mistake of keeping their IRAs mostly in cash and don’t realize how inflation can eat away at their savings. In a long-term account like an IRA, leaving cash idle means missing out on compound interest benefits. Regularly rebalancing your portfolio is key, as market changes can disrupt your original allocations. This means adjusting your investments to stay in line with your risk profile.
The mix of assets should evolve over time. In the early years of saving, a more dynamic allocation is best, while as you near retirement, your goal shifts to securing your gains. After retirement, your investments should focus on steady income along with growth. A “glide path” approach gradually shifts your investments from a focus on growth to a more conservative stance, adjusting equity and bond allocations by age, like 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds at age 40.
Utilizing Different Retirement Accounts
IRAs provide a way to invest tax-deferred, ensuring financial security for retirement. There are traditional IRAs, which may have tax-deductible contributions, and Roth IRAs, where withdrawals can be tax-free. Contributions allow you to invest across various financial products.
You can even include gold in your IRA, either through gold-focused stocks or physical gold in self-directed IRAs. While both IRAs and 401(k)s help save for retirement, they differ in investment flexibility. IRAs offer more options, while 401(k)s, usually offered by employers, come with restrictions. Both types of accounts have similar tax benefits and can be used together.
You don’t need a minimum contribution to start an IRA, but some brokers might have their own requirements. Keep in mind that market volatility can affect IRAs, which may result in losses during downturns. However, you can reduce risk by diversifying across different asset classes, sectors, and regions to protect your IRA’s value.
The material emphasizes managing market volatility as a risk while also recognizing it as an opportunity. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) trading near 13, showing market complacency, we see possibilities for profitable price movements. Thus, buying options, which are relatively inexpensive right now, could be a good move.
The warning about leaving funds idle in cash is also applicable to our strategies; uninvested money means losing out on important opportunities. We should plan ahead for major economic data releases, like monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, which tend to affect market movements. For instance, the May 2024 CPI report was lower than expected, leading to significant rallies in both stocks and bonds that an alert trader could have capitalized on.
The emphasis on diversifying across asset classes offers a helpful guide for our options trading. We can trade on interest rate movements using options on bond ETFs like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). At the same time, we can look into gold-related investments, particularly since the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF has risen over 12% this year due to strong demand against inflation.
We can modify the “glide path” idea by adjusting our strategies based on implied volatility rather than age. With current low volatility, selling premium provides lower returns, making long-volatility positions, such as straddles on specific stocks, more appealing, especially before earnings announcements. Historically, low-volatility periods, like those in 2017 and early 2020, have often led to quick market corrections, making protective put strategies wise.
Just as savers use different account types simultaneously, we should combine various derivatives to implement our strategies. For a general market perspective, using index futures can be paired with options spreads on high-beta stocks in tech and energy sectors. Recent geopolitical events have led to noticeable volatility in oil prices, offering clear opportunities in energy-related derivatives that are separate from movements in the broader tech market.
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The USD/JPY is facing pressure as the US Dollar weakens. Japan is in its eighth round of trade talks with the US ahead of the August 1 deadline. The exchange rate has dropped below 147.00, showing less bullish momentum.
The Japanese Yen is strengthening against the US Dollar, with attention on US-Japan trade talks and changes in Japan’s political scene. Key US trade officials are set to meet with Japan’s chief negotiator this week.
Trade Negotiations and Tariff Concerns
Current tariff discussions may extend a 25% US tariff on Japanese cars to more exports. Japan is pushing for exemptions and a rollback of tariffs, while the US demands concessions in digital services and agriculture.
Results from Japan’s upper house elections slightly boosted the Yen. Prime Minister Ishiba remains in power despite losing some seats. This political uncertainty might affect future economic reforms and trade talks.
Currently, the USD/JPY is trading around 146.78, with resistance at 147.14 and support at 146.00. A further dip could test the 50-day SMA at 145.17. If the pair rebounds past 147.60, it might approach 148.00 or higher.
Tariffs are taxes imposed on certain imports, aimed at protecting local industries and are often used in trade protectionism.
US Election Influence on Tariff Strategies
As we approach the 2024 election, Donald Trump has hinted at using tariffs to enhance the US economy, particularly against Mexico, China, and Canada, which make up 42% of US imports.
Given the current pressures on the USD/JPY pair, buying put options could be a wise strategy. This could allow traders to benefit if the price drops below the important 146.00 support level. Recent data shows core inflation in Tokyo holding steady at 2.0% in July, suggesting the central bank might act to strengthen the currency. The approaching August 1 deadline for trade talks increases this short-term downside risk.
The uncertainty in trade negotiations and Ishiba’s weakened political position indicates that volatility is likely, regardless of the outcome. Strategies based on volatility, like long straddles, could profit from significant price changes in either direction. Similar high-stakes trade deadlines, such as during the 2018-2019 US-China trade conflicts, caused sharp increases in currency volatility that benefitted such strategies.
We’re also considering the long-term effects of possible US policy changes mentioned. The potential for broad tariffs on Japanese exports under a future Trump administration could be a consistent challenge for the USD/JPY, especially concerning vehicles. In 2023, Japan exported over 1.7 million cars to the US, so we recommend looking into longer-dated put options to protect against or speculate on this ongoing risk.
The technical levels provided will guide our trading and risk management strategies. A firm drop below the 146.00 support will trigger us to increase our bearish positions, aiming for the 50-day SMA near 145.17. Conversely, we should reassess any positions if the pair rises back above the 147.60 resistance, as one-month implied volatility has already climbed above 8%, indicating the market is preparing for a larger than usual price shift.
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